How America
Spent in 2025
Black Friday Isn't Dead
Some brands still make Black Friday an event. Others not so much.
When we compared Black Friday weekend to a normal week, the biggest surges came from department stores and apparel brands: JCPenney had 3.2x their normal volume. Nike, Kohl's, and Old Navy? All of these brands saw their sales double. These brands still market Black Friday as something special. On the flip side, Amazon and Target were flat and Walmart was surprisingly down a whopping 18%! When you run deals year-round, Black Friday is just another Friday.
The surge isn't about in-store vs online. It's about which retailers still treat Black Friday as an event versus those who've made every day a sale.
Thanksgiving Is for Betting
Sports betting outspent retail by 62% during Black Friday weekend.
NFL Thanksgiving games drove more spending than all major retailers combined. In fact, the average bet and the average purchase were both around $50, but bettors bet 12 times each over Thanksgiving weekend, whereas shoppers only spent 3 times that weekend. What’s interesting is that more people went out and shopped (ice cream, pie, emergency turkey, you name it) but the fewer bettors were each way more active with their spends/bets and all of that points to an overwhelming share of spending going towards betting.
Share of spending that went towards betting.
The Rise of Prediction Markets
Nationally, sports betting held steady at 14% of users on our platform. However, Kalshi adoption soared and grew 9x.
When we normalized for our user growth (because there are a lot more of you this year ;) ), sports betting participation stayed flat: 14% in January, 14% in November. The mid-year dip and fall recovery tracks football season. But Kalshi is different: they went from 25 users per 100K in January to 216 per 100K by November accounting for the 9x growth we mentioned.
DraftKings and FanDuel control 75% of sports betting. Kalshi is tiny by comparison, but growing faster than any other category we tracked.
The Streaming Wars
Prime Video leads. Netflix holds second. Everyone else is fighting for bronze
Amazon's bundling strategy is paying off: 22% of our users pay for Prime Video. Netflix remains dominant at 19% of our user base. The newer players are still building their bases: Paramount+ and HBO each reach about 3% of our users.
No one player dominates completely, but Amazon has the lead.
The Coffee Divide
Eastern America does run on Dunkin', but the west prefers Pumpkin Spice Lattes at Starbucks.
In New England, Dunkin' isn't just popular, it's a landslide. 97% of Rhode Island runs on Dunkin'. In Massachusetts it's, 96% (we had to double check, we couldn't believe Massachusetts got beat by Rhode Island). Even New York and Pennsylvania are 85%+ Dunkin' territory. But cross into the Mountain West or Pacific, and Starbucks takes over completely. Washington state, home of Starbucks HQ, has essentially zero Dunkin' presence. In Oregon, Idaho, Montana,: it's the same story with either 100% of the share going to Starbucks or close enough.
The Mississippi River which runs from Minnesota in the north to Louisiana in the south clearly divides Dunkin' country from Starbucks territory.
The Chicken Sandwich War Is Over
All hail Chick-fil-A!. They won decisively. They have 2.3x more transactions than Popeyes nationally, and they're closed on Sundays.
That's the remarkable part. Operating six days a week instead of seven, Chick-fil-A still dominates in most of the country. The exceptions: New York goes 61% Popeyes, Hawaii 67%, and Alaska has no Chick-fil-As at all, for now. It's clear folks, Chick-fil-A has won the chicken sandwich war.
Chick-fil-A easily dominates the lower 48 states while Popeyes holds on to Alaska and Hawaii.
The Phone Bill Map
T-Mobile quietly became America's carrier. They lead in 31 states.
Can you hear T-Mobile now? Well if you're in 31 states, yeah you do. To be fair, AT&T holds strong in 15 states, mostly in the South and Northeast. On the other hand, Verizon, despite it's premium pricing, only leads in 5 states including California and Florida.
T-Mobile has grown to be the dominant force in 31 states through mergers, acquisition, and plan simplification.
The Regional Burger Belt
Forget McDonald's. The real burger wars are regional. And they map almost perfectly to geography.
Whataburger owns Texas and the South. In-N-Out rules the West Coast with it's delicious and fresh burgers, and is slowly moving east. Meanwhile, Culver's and their ButterBurgers dominates the Midwest. Five Guys fills up the Northeast with all of the customizations and extra fries in the bag. Each region has picked its champion!
Everyone has their favorite with strong regional players carving up much of the country.
Where America Fills Up
Regional gas station empires have carved up America like it's a game of thrones!
In the west, Chevron has a dominant hold. Circle K focuses on individual markets and dominates Arizona and the Carolinas. QuikTrip has also focused on individual markets by having a hold on Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, and, interestingly, Georgia. Shell holds a strong Northeast corridor and has a firm grip around the Mississippi river. And in the upper Midwest, Kwik Trip and Casey's have their own fiefdoms. But who’s going to unite the land? Please, no dragons in this fight!
It's a free-for-all across the country with fiefdoms breaking up and holding on territory.
